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In the United States, a 25-50% increase in gasoline prices is required to reduce travel by 1%, although the effect on fuel demand is stronger. At the peak of the last interglacial period, however, the average global temperature wasat most 2Fwarmer than it is today.15, Changes in the suns energy output can affect the intensity of the sunlight that reaches the earths surface. By Stephen Gardiner. As time goes on, climate change added a few layers of wood to the basketball court such that the player, even with his natural ability, has an easier time dunking the basketball. For example, the amount of summer sunshine on the Northern Hemisphere, which is affected by changes in the planets orbit, appears to be the primary cause of past cycles of ice ages, in which the earth has experienced long periods of cold temperatures (ice ages), as well as shorter interglacial periods (periods between ice ages) of relatively warmer temperatures.14 At the coldest part of the last glacial period (or ice age), the average global temperature was about 11Fcolder than it istoday. 2d. In fact, in 9501050 AD, the temperatures were higher than now. They often meet to chat while they dig through the garbage with sticks. Perhaps youre thinking of indecisive politicians, many of whom are backed by the fossil fuel industry. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, p. 167. This is because climate change is compounding the effects of other already-existing detrimental human activities like overfishing and deforestation. Yes, by increasing the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human activities are amplifying Earth's natural greenhouse effect. doi: 10.17226/25733. Evidence is the representation of data in a form that undergirds an argument that works to answer the original question (Hand et al., 2009, p. 129). These measurements show no net increase in the suns output, even as global surface temperatures have risen.17. Matthews, T.K. Their shelter could be wiped out by a tropical storm and rebuilding would be very difficult. A world in which all human beings were equal, rational, and . Climate change deniers will say that the Arctic ice is actually growing, but when they say that theyre talking about surface ice which is only meters thick and always grows and shrinks in a cycle. 1705 Words. Over 99% of scientists agree that climate change is happening. In our warming world, U.S. estimates currently sit at a loss of one to four percent of its GDP each year by 2100. But the climate is always changing. Stewart & T.K. Stewart & T.K. For the past 30 years, there have been predictions that Artic sea ice was on the decline. How is Drinking Water Different in Other Areas of the World? Ask the students to think about what types of claims they can make about climate change using the data they found (Sample claims: human activity is causing global warming or sea-level rise in the next fifty years will affect coastal cities like Amsterdam, Hong Kong, or New Orleans). Activities such as agriculture, road construction, and deforestation can change the reflectivity of the earth's surface, leading to local warming or cooling. Now scientists are increasingly looking at the role climate change is playing in specific disaster events. Argumentation in this sense is different from how the word argument is used in everyday language. Claim an inference or a statement that answers a question, Evidence an outside source of information that supports the claim, often drawn from selected data, Reasoning the justification/support for the claim; what connects the evidence with the claim, wait for group members to finish their turns before speaking, be mindful of your own contributions to the discussion, For visual learners use diagrams, encourage students to map out their arguments prior to writing them, For auditory learners use the lines of evidence video, For ESL students provide them with a variety of greenhouse gases diagrams, allow for a more flexible argument format and focus on general meaning-making ex. Currently, species are going extinct at 1,000 times the natural rate of extinction. In conclusion, you cant choose your family, but you can try to change their mindsets on climate change. Hibbard, A. Romanou & P.C. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Climate change is just part of the natural cycle. By a large majority, climate scientists agree that average global temperature today is warmer than in pre-industrial times and that human activity is the most significant factor. The Earth is on track to warm up to two degrees Celsius this century, but winters not going to disappear altogether in many parts of the world. Trends in nitrous oxide. The last seven years have been the hottest seven years on record, and thats counting the bitter polar vortexes that have driven Arctic air down across North America during that period. (2013). That means that the ten warmest yearsall happened during a time when the amount of radiation/heat coming from the sun was declining. Whatever inspires you to myth-bust this holiday season, here are six ways to respond to your familys climate-denying comments. Worry about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age in over 10,000 years. Higher temperatures haveincreased heat-related deaths. Burning fossil fuels changes the climate more than any other human activity. Dokken, B.C. More frequent and more intense extreme weather is a documented result of our greenhouse gas emissions, and the annual cost of flooding in the UK could increase 15-fold by the 2080s. This explains why even though scientists may use the same data to draw explanations from, the final product may take different forms depending on which parts of the data were used and how. Some explosive volcano eruptions can throw particles (e.g., SO2)into the upper atmosphere, where they can reflect enough sunlight back to space to cool the surface of the planet for several years.19 These particles are an example of cooling aerosols. (2009) Negotiating Science: The Critical Role of Argumentation in Student Inquiry. Your great grandchildren who are currently on track to inherit a world four degrees warmer than yours and feel its effects atevery stage of their life will have to clean up the mess your generation made in their fight for survival. U.S. While there are many resources for teaching about climate change and sustainability, it may be tough to figure out where to start. 11 IPCC. The United States stands to lose billions of dollars, second only to India in terms of the negative economic impact. A group of climate change scientists a few years ago took a . Emissions of small particles, known as aerosols, into the air can also lead to reflection or absorption of the sun's energy. Pennsylvania Academic Standardsfor earth and space science (secondary): 3.3.12.A1, 3.3.12.A6, 3.3.10.A7. In the early 2000s it was global warming, now called climate change, which is causing the polar ice caps to melt with rising sea levels. Please try again. 97% of climate scientists, aka the experts in this subject, agree that climate change is caused by humans. (2020). That some of the worlds mass extinctions have been tied to CO2 shouldnt be a relief, though; it should be a wakeup call. Unlike in the past, we are the ones doing the damage (through the out-of-control burning of fossil fuels), not the Earth. Stewart & T.K. Climate Change is . The scientific consensus. "Ocean acidification isn't serious". "We're heading into an ice age". This interdisciplinary unit can be used in an earth science class or adapted to environmental science, chemistry, or physics. The truth is politicians have known about climate change since (at least) the 1980s and fossil fuel companies have known about it since the 1960s. A lock (LockA locked padlock) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Some climates are small in scale, like the climate of a local region or the microclimates within an ecosystem, and some are much larger, such as the climates of entire continents, or the world's oceans. Rather, the earth is rotating through its continual cycle, and this theory of climate change will be put to rest soon: The Climate is indeed changing. However, they do not explain the warming that we have observed over the last century.1, It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Many types of air pollutants undergo chemical reactions in the atmosphere to create aerosols. - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change4, Scientists have pieced together a record of the earths climate by analyzing a number of indirect measures of climate, such as ice cores, tree rings, glacier lengths, pollen remains, and ocean sediments, and by studying changes in the earths orbit around the sun.2 This record shows that the climate varies naturally over a wide range of time scales, but this variability does not explain the observed warming since the 1950s. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, p. 5. doi: 10.17226/25733. Twinkl Key Stage 1 - Year 1, Year 2 Educational Resources. Avoid over usage of natural resources 2. Remember to use evidence in your argument. While these changes can influence the earths climate, solar variations have played little role in the climate changes observed in recent decades.16 Satellites have been measuring the amount of energy the earth receives from the sun since 1978. Argument write-up check that students arguments contain claims supported by evidence and reasoning and that they thought about possible weaknesses in their own arguments. Carbon pricing and border tariffs. And if that happens, youll definitely have something interesting to talk about next holiday. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, p. 53. doi: 10.7930/J08S4N35, 16National Academy of Sciences. Case study letter check that students included evidence in their letter. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, p. 9. doi: 10.17226/25733, 15Fahey, D.W., S.J. How do we know this? For example, they claim that agriculture will benefit from higher temperatures, increased rainfall, expansion into northern latitudes, and the fertilization effect of CO 2. Hibbard, D.J. 8 NOAA. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis.Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Physical drivers of climate change. [emailprotected]. Major scientific assessments also agree. January 9, 2016 at 9:00 a.m. EST. Hibbard, D.J. Hibbard, A. Romanou & P.C. Increased drought, and a longer fire season are boosting these . Should they close Deonar? (2021). (2020). (2012). Thats where the justification or reasoning comes in. LONG-TERM DATA ON HURRICANES AND ARCTIC ICE IS POOR. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Maycock & B.C. Another potential cause of a changing climate may be attributed to natural emissions from vents in the deep ocean and volcanoes around the world, which spew carbon dioxide, water vapor, and carbon monoxide, all of which are greenhouse gases that trap heat, warming the climate. The climate of the Earth has always changed, but the study of . Please click here to see any active alerts. The final argument supporting human caused climate change is that the number of natural disasters has increased five fold since the 1970s. These are the main arguments surrounding to the climate change debate. Thumbnail image cropped from a photograph by Ryan Johnson on Unsplash. Some days he wishes the government would close down Deonar and clean it up. "Climate sensitivity is low". It is one of the dimensions of a global ecological crisis, a direct consequence of the complex interactions between humans and nature. Second, while land use change is an important driver of climate change, a changing climate can lead to changes in land use and land cover. 1752 N Street NW One of his friends, Aamir, had to stop going to school and work full time after his dad got injured. The new PM will not . Projected increases in number of days over 90F between now and 2090 according to two climate change scenarios. (2013). Evidence and data are often used synonymously, but there is a difference. Avoid plastic usage and pollution Doherty, K.A. Taylor. At this point, with climate change not even at its fullest force, more than one million species are at risk of extinction. Climate change: Evidence and causes: Update 2020. "We were discussing the global pricing on CO2. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Thats double the rate of the previous century. Carbon dioxide and its ability to absorb and re-radiate heat is key in understanding climate change. U.S. He also conveniently posed each of these arguments as questions; it turns out they're all easy to answer. That action whether its participating in a cleanup, having a plant-based meal, or attending a teach-in can help put us on a course to a greener, more sustainable future. Hibbard, A. Romanou, & P.C. In addition, human activities emit more than 100 times as much carbon dioxide as volcanoes each year.20, Over the last several hundred thousand years, carbon dioxide levels varied in tandem with the glacial cycles. Carmen Vanderhoof is a doctoral candidate in Science Education at Penn State. Physical drivers of climate change. Dokken, B.C. be related to problems with how the data was gathered and analysed and Grandpa says, "It's so cold outside. And theres not enough of a consensus by scientists to prove otherwise. Maycock (eds.)]. Therefore, those claiming global temperature will continue to increase should look towardshistory to see that temperature will decrease. Changing temperature patterns. Can you pass the cranberry sauce? Our present climate change is occurring 20 to 50 times faster than the most rapid climate change events in Earths history. Suite 700 First, land cover--as shaped by land use practices--affects the global concentration of greenhouse gases. (2002). For this initial step, it is important that students feel comfortable to share, without engaging in disagreements. There is a massive landfill called Deonar right across from his school. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. The key to adapting the lesson is guiding students to sources of data that fit the discipline they are studying. Maycock (eds.)]. Some of these arguments may stick; some may go in one ear and out the other. Back in 2014, David Friedman worked through the original paper that kicked off the "97% consensus" talking point. But leaders in the highest-emitting countries are doing next to nothing to slow climate change, let alone stop it. Thats just 84 peer-reviewed studies out of 12,000 that reject the idea that global warming is caused by humans. (2017). Washington, DC 20036 1. But there is a conceit that mankind is so important. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, p. 76. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. These relationships can be divided into four main approaches. Not to do so could mean backpedaling on so much of the progress that scientific research has advanced. This effect is observed in heat islands, which are urban centers that are warmer than the surrounding, less populated areas. Scientists can drill down into the ice in Antarctica to look at ice core data from hundreds of thousands of years ago. But experts say countries aren't doing enough to. Join the Worlds Largest Environmental Movement! Stewart & T.K. Changes in the earths orbit and its axis of rotation have had a big impact on climate in the past. Diseases will increase and mutate. Rishi is a thirteen year old boy who attends the Gayak Rafi Nagar Urdu Municipal school in Mumbai. (2017). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, p. 166. +1 (202) 518- 0044 Thousands of scientists since 1992 have been fulfilling their moral obligation to tell the world about what its future could look. Overall, 50% of adults say climate change is occurring mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels, 23% say climate change is occurring due to natural patterns in the Earth's environment, and 25% say there is no solid evidence that the Earth is warming. Excessive usage of fossill fuels 3. This is called the Sawyer, R. K. (2018). Trends in atmospheric methane. After all, the future of humanity is on the line. Evidence can come from many sources results from controlled experiments, measurements, books, articles, websites, personal observations, etc. Maycock (eds.)]. This process yielded five major categories: (1) it's not happening, (2) it's not us, (2) it's not bad, (4) solutions won't work, and (5) climate science/scientists are unreliable. While environmentalists are predicting the end of the world as we know it, and claim that earth is getting warmer every year, the science clearly reveals a standstill in the apparent warming. U.S. Physical drivers of climate change. Yes please On a global scale, not only can we expect rising sea levels and hotter days, but far more extreme weather incidents, too. Climate change can be traced down to since the mid-1800s, when the industrial revolution first started taking place all around the world. These conversations arent easy, but we should try to engage in them when we can. using arrows to connect their sources of evidence to claims, For advanced learners ask them to search through larger data sets and make comparisons between data from different sources; they can also research environmental policies and why they stalled out in congress, For learners that need more support print out excerpts from articles; pinpoint the main ideas to help with the research; help students connect their evidence with their claims; consider allowing students to work in pairs to accomplish the writing task. We laid out each train of thought and the evidence they cite so that you can come to your own conclusion on where you stand in the climate change debate. There are health-related risks, from higher rates of allergies,. Provide students with one set of climate change data (look through the links provided in the Resources section) and directions for finding another set of data (encourage students to find newspaper articles online or go to specific sources like NASA), Compare different data sources and assess their credibility. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, p. B-2. A scientific claim is a statement that answers a question or an inference based on information, rather than just personal opinion. Lives of human and animal species have been negatively affected since then, with events such as natural disasters, the melting of ice in polar regions, and change in weather and living conditions. Perhaps if you convince them, your newly informed, ex-climate-denying relatives will even take action for Earth Day in 2022. Carmen Vanderhoof, Curriculum and Instruction, College of Education, Penn State. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, p. 79. doi: 10.7930/J0513WCR, 20Fahey, D.W., S.J. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. Beyond that, there's the simple chemistry of the thing: As the ocean absorbs more carbon from the atmosphere, more hydrogen ions are created and the water's pH drops. 1) No Recent Warming. (2017). Rising average temperatures, more extreme heat throughout the year, fewer sufficiently cool days during the winter, and more frequent cold-season thaws will likely affect farmers in all regions. According to NCEI, The year culminated as the sixth warmest year on record for the globe with a temperature that was 0.84C (1.51F) above the 20th century average. 3IPCC (2013). Physical drivers of climate change. Revised ed., Belknap Press, 1999. The past 12 months have been a "wasted year" on climate change says the UN Environment Programme. Ask the students to think about what types of claims they can make about climate change using the data they found (Sample claims: human activity is causing global warming or sea-level rise in the next fifty years will affect coastal cities like Amsterdam, Hong Kong, or New Orleans). The main idea is to increase students understanding about global warming, rather than focus on the potential controversial nature of this topic. Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Net positive feedback is confirmed by many different lines of evidence. Hi, It seems you are visiting us from India, would you like to visit our India pages? Global warming is a hoax. An unexpected error occurred. Climate change: Evidence and causes: Update 2020. We . Hibbard, B. DeAngelo, S. Doherty, K. Hayhoe, R. Horton, J.P. Kossin, P.C.

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